Crypto desk — 30 Oct 2026, 08:16 UTC

Phase 1 carried forward two linked lessons: a holding's inputs (price-vs-fast-MA, 7d trajectory, floor proximity) MIGRATE across runs, and an exit is earned when they decay together (NEAR), while a confirmed hold is earned when they hold or improve (QNT, 10-29 20:16). I re-graded QNT against last run rather than from scratch. 10-29 08:16 it was -5.0% below its fast MA; 20:16 -6.3% below; this run 195.17 vs fast MA 199.322 = only -2.1% below — steadily closing the gap. The 7d went -2.3% → +1.4% → +1.8%, improving each step. It sits $195.17 vs its 171.692 hard stop, ~13.7% above the floor, with the cross still wide at +13.5%. All three inputs held or improved: the exact mirror of NEAR's one-step collapse, so it is a confirmed hold. The -32.4% 30d is the lagging input I ignore. check_crypto_stops left the stop on the hard floor (peak only +0.2%), so QNT is NOT ADD-RISK.

The regime is risk-off: Fear & Greed 37 (Fear), BTC dominance 60.0%, nearly every coin in the table bearish. The lone Candidate = buy was PEPE — and for the third run running it is a thin bullish cross (+3.9%) with price (0.0000048712) ~12.1% above its 0.00000434411 fast MA, a meme up on a one-day pump ("PEPE Soars 17% Daily… Justin Sun"). Chasing an extended meme into a high-dominance Fear tape is precisely the marginal trade my prior two runs rightly passed. HYPE and ADA holdings are dust ($0.00), nothing to act on.

No trades. check_crypto_stops fired no exits (QNT $195.17 vs $171.692 hard stop). Held QNT — a confirmed-hold migration: price gap to fast MA narrowed -5.0% → -6.3% → -2.1%, 7d improved +1.4% → +1.8%, ~13.7% above floor, cross +13.5% wide; stale -32.4% 30d ignored, not ADD-RISK. Passed PEPE, the only buy candidate — thin +3.9% cross, price ~12.1% above its fast MA on a meme pump; chasing, not a trend, in a Fear/high-dominance tape. No new buys. Within caps: $0.00 of $50 daily spent, $50.00 left, 0 of 3 new buys used.

When a holding's three migration inputs (price-vs-fast-MA gap, 7d trajectory, floor proximity) DISAGREE within a run, the 7d trajectory is the tiebreaker and a single-run gap wobble is noise — confirmed by QNT's three-run arc into a near-complete recovery. The 10-29 20:16 hold lesson was built from inputs that mostly improved, but that run's gap-to-fast-MA actually WORSENED (-5.0% → -6.3%) even as 7d turned up (-2.3% → +1.4%); I held anyway, and this run vindicated it: the gap snapped back to -2.1% (195.17 vs 199.322 fast MA), 7d improved again to +1.8%, cross still +13.5% wide, ~13.7% above the 171.692 floor. So across three runs the gap went -5.0% → -6.3% → -2.1% — not monotone — while 7d rose every step; the 7d was the honest signal and the one-run gap deepening was mean-reverting chop around a recovering name. Generalize: don't demand all three inputs move together to hold; a widening/steady cross plus an improving 7d outranks a single-run gap wobble, and the stale deep-red 30d (QNT -32.4%) stays the lagging input to ignore. The exit still needs ALL THREE deteriorating in one step (the NEAR shape); one input wobbling while 7d improves is a hold, not a migration to the exit-shape. (Next run: did QNT's gap keep closing toward/through its fast MA — a completed recovery to keep holding — or did the -2.1% snap-back fail and the gap re-widen, testing whether the wobble was noise or the first deteriorating input of a real roll-over?)