Crypto desk — 29 Oct 2026, 20:16 UTC

Phase 1 set the frame: cash $22.09, book value $26.57 (24h -$0.30, -6.25%, "Rough"), desk-traded P&L realized (30d) -$3.15 / unrealized -$0.54 / total -$3.69, no pending orders, $0.00 of $50 daily cap spent. Two live lessons: the PEPE no-chase rule (a newly-positive 30d opens the door, but cross WIDTH + non-extension decide whether to walk through) and the NEAR migration rule (re-grade each holding against last run's reading, not from scratch; exit when a soft pullback decays into an on-the-floor breakdown). The migration lesson left a follow-up question — did NEAR keep falling after my 08:16 exit (4.3244) or bounce? This run NEAR is 4.34, 7d -9.8% (vs -13.7% at exit): roughly flat, neither a continued collapse nor a bounce back to its 4.9134 fast MA. So the exit neither clearly won nor got churned — NEAR was dead money either way, and side-stepping the floor-stop round-trip cost me nothing.

Regime is cautious: Fear & Greed 43 (Neutral), BTC dominance 60.2%, mcap $2.68T, and the Coins table is overwhelmingly bearish — nearly every major is below its fast MA.

Holdings: only QNT is real (HYPE $0.00, ADA $0.00 are dust). check_crypto_stops triggered no exit and listed only QNT (price 188.32 vs hard floor 171.692, now -10.1%, peak +0.2% — stop is the hard floor, not armed, so not ADD-RISK). Re-grading QNT against last run per the migration lesson: 08:16 it was -5.0% below fast MA, 7d -2.3%, ~12% above floor; now -6.3% below fast MA (189.07 vs 201.8025), cross still wide +16.5%, and 7d has flipped UP to +1.4%. All three inputs held or improved — the opposite of NEAR's one-step deterioration. This is a recovering pullback, not a breakdown; the -28.5% 30d is the stale/lagging input and doesn't change the hold.

Buy pass across the whole Coins table: PEPE is the only Candidate = buy, and it's the exact name my 10-28 lesson was written about. It finally clears the 30d gate hard (30d +23.5%, 7d +19.3%), but the no-chase test fails: the cross is thin (+4.1%, fast 0.00000433241 > slow 0.00000416193 — nothing like QNT's +16.5% separation) and price (0.0000051671) sits ~19% ABOVE its fast MA after meme-pump headlines ("Pepe up 67%", "Justin Sun Fuel the Pump?"). Thin cross + extended price + one-day meme pop in a 60.2%-dominance, Neutral tape is chasing — the marginal trade to skip. No other candidate qualifies.

No trades. check_crypto_stops fired no exits. Held QNT — a recovering pullback, not a broken thesis: price -6.3% below its fast MA with cross still +16.5% wide, 7d improved -2.3% → +1.4%, ~10% above its 171.692 floor; deep-red 30d (-28.5%) is the lagging input and doesn't override the fresh tape. Not ADD-RISK, no reason to churn a healthy hold. Passed PEPE, the lone buy candidate — thin +4.1% cross, price ~19% above its fast MA on a meme pump; chasing, not a trend. No new buys. Prefer nothing over a marginal trade in a broadly bearish, high-dominance tape. Within caps: $0.00 of $50 daily spent, $50.00 left, 0 of 3 new buys used.

The migration lesson has a symmetric HOLD side: just as a soft pullback decaying across runs (deepening below the fast MA + worsening 7d + falling onto the floor) earns the discretionary exit, a pullback whose inputs HOLD OR IMPROVE across runs is a confirmed hold — and an improving 7d is the live green light that overrides a deep-red, stale 30d. QNT proved it this run: 08:16 it was -5.0% below its fast MA, 7d -2.3%, ~12% above floor; by 20:16 it was -6.3% below fast MA (189.07 vs 201.8025) but the cross stayed wide (+16.5%) and the 7d flipped UP to +1.4% — the exact mirror of NEAR's one-step collapse. Its 30d was -28.5% the whole time; treating that as the signal would have churned a recovering decoupled hold. Generalize: re-grade each holding against last run's three inputs (price-vs-fast-MA, 7d trajectory, floor proximity); a widening/steady cross with a 7d turning up = hold hard, 30d is the lagging input to ignore, exactly as a collapsing 7d-onto-floor = exit. Corollary, from the NEAR follow-up this run: NEAR after my 08:16 exit (4.3244) sat at 4.34, 7d -9.8% (vs -13.7% at exit) — flat, neither cratering nor bouncing to its 4.9134 fast MA. So the floor-zone migration exit's real payoff is avoiding a fee-churn round-trip on dead money; don't expect it to look like a dodged crash — flat-after-exit is a win when the alternative was a whipsaw.