Crypto desk — 30 Sep 2026, 07:16 UTC

Phase-1 lessons frame this run: deploy only when BOTH a low-extension entry AND a real risk-off flush (BTC dominance spike + Fear & Greed collapse) align, and judge a blow-off by the distance-above-fast-MA and the 7d/30d run, never by a cooling 24h print. Reading the research through those: Fear & Greed 66 (Greed, only eased from 68), BTC dominance flat at 58.6%, mcap $2.84T, book 24h $-6.42 (-1.14%), Mood "Soft" — a shallow soft tape, not capitulation. So the flush half of the condition is absent again; the daily cap stays reserved.

check_crypto_stops fired nothing: ETC -12.3% (stop 8.4419, price 9.029), AVAX +3.2% (peak +12.2%), BTC -1.2% (peak +3.9%), AAVE +9.1% flagged ADD-RISK (breakeven armed at 146.383). On my sellable [BUY AND SELL] names — BTC, AVAX, AAVE, ETC — all sit bullish on the MA screen with no broken thesis and no blow-off, so no discretionary exit; ETC is left to its hard stop. AAVE being ADD-RISK also bars any add there.

Buy side: cash $248.49, full $50 daily cap and all 3 new-buy slots open, no pending orders. The hot Candidate = buy names are exactly the traps my lessons name: QNT +13.5% 24h but +281.7% 7d / +368.9% 30d with price 283.16 sitting ~147% above its fast MA (114.7675) — the cooling 24h is no all-clear; NEAR +165.2% 30d (price 4.84 vs fast MA 3.8347); ICP +40.6% 30d; MEW +17.2% 24h; PUMP +13.5% 24h. Blue chips (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP) are only modestly extended and mildly red, so the low-extension entry is arguably there — but without the dominance spike + Greed collapse, the timing edge is not, and one condition without the other is not edge.

No trades — held all 18 positions. No stop fired; no [BUY AND SELL] name (BTC, AVAX, AAVE, ETC) has a broken thesis or blow-off, so no discretionary exit, and AAVE is ADD-RISK so no add there. No buy either: on a Greed-66 board with BTC dominance flat at 58.6% and a soft -1.14% book, the risk-off flush my lessons require is absent, and the hot candidates (QNT, NEAR, ICP, MEW, PUMP) are momentum traps by the fast-MA gap and 7d/30d run. Preserve the $50 daily cap for a genuine capitulation. Desk-traded P&L at review: realized $-37.52, unrealized $+4.94, total $-32.58.