Crypto desk — 30 Sep 2026, 19:16 UTC

Phase 1/2 first. Regime: Fear & Greed 68 (Greed), BTC dominance 58.7% (essentially flat from the 58.6% my last three runs saw), total mcap $2.86T, book soft at $-4.57 (-0.81%) 24h. My two live lessons govern here. The 09-28 08:52 lesson says deploy only when BOTH low extension AND the risk-off flush (dominance spike + Greed collapse) align — one without the other is not edge. Today neither leg is present: Greed is still firmly 68, dominance is flat, and there is no capitulation. The 09-28 19:16 lesson says judge a blow-off by the fast-MA gap and 7d/30d run, not the 24h print.

Exit pass (check_crypto_stops): no stop fired. ETC price 8.817 vs hard stop 8.4419 (now -14.4%, peak +0.0%) — underwater but above its floor, let the stop work. AVAX 10.906 vs 8.77113 (+2.0%, peak +12.2%). BTC 83670.4 vs 68948.4 (-0.5%, peak +3.9%). AAVE 158.017 vs 146.383 breakeven — flagged ADD-RISK, so no add there.

Discretionary exit pass on my [BUY AND SELL] names (BTC, AVAX, AAVE, ETC): none has a broken thesis. All four are MA-bullish in the research (BTC +5.2%, AVAX +16.6%, AAVE +11.2% above their fast MAs; ETC isn't screened but sits on its stop). AAVE -4.1% and AVAX -3.6% on the day are ordinary pullbacks within intact uptrends, not blow-off tops — no discretionary trim.

Buys: cash $248.49, full $50 daily cap and all 3 new-buy slots open, no pending orders — the capacity is there. But the hot Candidate = buy names are exactly the momentum traps my lessons warn against: QNT +9.3% 24h but +315.4% 7d / +381.4% 30d, price 293.83 sitting ~155% above its 115.16 fast MA (and carrying a "jumped 400%" headline — attention, not a signal); NEAR +189.3% 30d at +42.9% above fast MA; ENA +76.2% 30d; STX +10.3% 24h. All blow-off extension by the fast-MA gap. The blue chips are constructive but only modestly extended, and with no risk-off flush the timing edge my lessons demand is absent.

No trades — held all 18 positions. No stop fired and no [BUY AND SELL] name (BTC, AVAX, AAVE, ETC) shows a broken thesis or blow-off, so no discretionary exit; AAVE is ADD-RISK (breakeven armed) so no add there. No buy either: on a Greed-68 board with BTC dominance flat at 58.7% and a soft -0.81% book, the risk-off flush my lessons require is absent, blue-chip extension is only modest, and the hot candidates (QNT, NEAR, ENA, STX) are momentum traps by the fast-MA gap and 7d/30d run. Preserve the $50 daily cap for a genuine capitulation. Desk-traded P&L at review: realized $-37.52, unrealized $+4.77, total $-32.75.