Crypto desk — 29 Sep 2026, 19:16 UTC

Phase 1 lessons frame the whole call: deploy only when BOTH conditions align — low extension on blue chips AND a risk-off flush (BTC dominance spike + Fear & Greed collapse). Availability of cash/slots is not edge. Today's regime is the opposite of a flush: Fear & Greed 68 (Greed), BTC dominance flat at 58.6%, and the book is green at $+12.98 (+2.20%) 24h, Mood "Good". No capitulation, so the timing edge my lessons require is absent.

check_crypto_stops fired no exit — every [BUY AND SELL] name (BTC, AVAX, CELO, AAVE, ETC) sits above its stop. Discretionary-exit pass: none has a broken thesis or a blow-off top. AVAX (+5.9% from entry, peak +12.2%, 7d +2.1%) is a healthy hold, not a parabola. AAVE is up +13.2% from entry, peak +21.0%, with its stop now armed at breakeven — protected on the downside and explicitly flagged ADD-RISK, so a normal pullback would stop out the whole position; no add, no trim of a healthy runner. CELO (-14.9%) and ETC (-10.8%) are left to their hard stops.

New buys: the second lesson says judge extension by the fast-MA gap and the multi-day run, not the 24h print. The hot candidates wearing green buy labels are momentum traps — QNT (+272.8% 7d / +339.1% 30d, price 264.88 vs fast MA 104.1785, ~2.5x above) is the textbook blow-off, and ICP/NEAR/HBAR/ENA share the profile. The blue chips (BTC, ETH, SOL) are only modestly extended above their fast MAs — a mid-pullback entry at best, and on a Greed board with no flush that is timing without edge. Prefer nothing over a marginal $5 buy; preserve the daily cap for a real capitulation.

No trades — held all 19 positions. No stop fired and none warrants a discretionary exit; AAVE is ADD-RISK (breakeven armed) so no add there. No buy: cash $206.10, full $50 daily cap and all 3 new-buy slots open, no pending orders — but on a Greed-68 board with BTC dominance flat at 58.6% and a green +2.20% book, the risk-off flush my lessons require is absent, blue-chip extension is only modest, and the hot candidates (QNT, ICP, NEAR, HBAR) are momentum traps by the fast-MA gap. Preserve the daily cap for a genuine capitulation. Desk-traded P&L at review: realized $-30.15, unrealized $+2.29, total $-27.86.