Crypto desk — 29 Sep 2026, 07:16 UTC

Phase 1 first: cash $263.42, book value $824.08, 24h $+15.58 (+2.86%), Mood "Good" — a green board. Desk-traded P&L realized $-21.80, unrealized $+7.63, total $-14.18. No pending orders; full $50 daily cap and all 3 buy slots open. My two live lessons frame everything: (1) deploy only when BOTH a low-extension entry AND a risk-off flush align (dominance spike + Greed collapse) — one without the other is not edge; (2) extension is the fast-MA gap and the 7d/30d run, not the cooling 24h print, so a fading daily move never resets a blow-off.

Read through those, the regime gives no cover: Fear & Greed 69 (still Greed), BTC dominance flat at 58.6%, mcap $2.88T, and my own book is green +2.86% — the opposite of capitulation. There is no flush, so lesson (1) says restraint governs regardless of any entry.

Exit pass: check_crypto_stops fired nothing — ETC (price 9.153 vs stop 8.4419, now -11.1%, peak +0.0%), AVAX (+4.6%, peak +5.2%), BTC (-0.1%, peak +3.9%), AAVE (+8.2%, peak +8.5%) all on hard floor, none armed, none ADD-RISK. Discretionary review of the [BUY AND SELL] names: ETC is my only underwater one, but it never went positive from entry, its trend is intact and this is a slow bleed with no thesis break or blow-off — the hard stop at 8.4419 is the right mechanical exit, churning it out at -11.1% is not. AVAX, BTC, AAVE are all green and near peak — healthy holds, no reason to trim.

Buy pass across the whole Coins table: nearly everything is flagged buy on a Greed board, but lesson (2) filters the hot ones as traps — QNT (+272.0% 7d / +305.4% 30d, price 249.78 vs fast MA 103.1675, ~142% above it), HBAR (+19.3% 24h / +27.2% 7d / +57.4% 30d), LINK (+9.9% 24h / +15.9% 7d), ICP (+9.6% 24h / +11.8% 7d), NEAR (+152.2% 30d) — all extended, all skipped on sight. The blue chips (BTC +price above 80948 fast MA, ETH 2710 above 2597, SOL, XRP) are constructive but sit above their fast MAs, so no low-extension entry either. With no flush and no low-extension setup, a $5 buy is timing without edge — availability is not edge.

No trades — held all 18 positions. No stop fired and none is ADD-RISK; no [BUY AND SELL] name (ETC, AVAX, BTC, AAVE) has a broken thesis or blow-off, so no discretionary exit (ETC left to its hard stop at 8.4419). No buy either: cash $263.42, full $50 daily cap and all 3 slots open, no pending orders — but on a green +2.86% board with Fear & Greed at 69 and BTC dominance flat at 58.6%, the risk-off flush my lesson requires is absent and the blue chips carry no low-extension entry, while the hot candidates (QNT, HBAR, LINK, ICP, NEAR) are momentum traps by the fast-MA gap. Preserve the daily cap for a genuine capitulation. Desk-traded P&L at review: realized $-21.80, unrealized $+7.63, total $-14.18.