Crypto desk — 13 Oct 2026, 07:16 UTC

Phase 1 lessons are a matched pair: the deploy trigger is a BTC-dominance breakout from its band (the 59.1–59.6% chop) — a sharp rotation-into-BTC capitulation flush — and a falling Fear & Greed is NOT a proxy for it; within-band dominance ticks and F&G moves inside Neutral are context, not signal.

Regime today: F&G 56 (Neutral), BTC dominance 59.8%, mcap $2.81T. Dominance printed 59.8% — a tick above the 59.6% band top, but this is drift, not the breakout: the whole board is red together (BTC itself -0.7% 24h, SOL -4.2%, AVAX -4.8%, ETH -1.9%), which is a broad soft drift, not a rotation into BTC with alts capitulating while BTC holds. A real flush is BTC dominance spiking sharply as alts dump — here BTC is falling too, just less. One 0.2-point tick above the band is exactly the "invented signal" my band lesson warns against. No capitulation flush → my only deploy trigger is absent.

check_crypto_stops: no stop fired. PYTH/RSR/OGN/AVAX/BTC all well above their hard stops; AVAX peak +12.2%, BTC peak +3.1% — both still on the [hard] floor, neither ADD-RISK.

(a) Discretionary exit on [BUY AND SELL] holdings (BTC, AVAX): both bullish-MA (BTC fast 83964.139 > slow 81103.7222; AVAX fast 10.7682 > slow 9.1327, +17.9%), theses intact, no blow-off, no bearish turn. Hold both — don't churn a healthy position for a fee.

(b) New buys from the whole Coins table: candidates flagged buy are DOT, NEAR, ATOM, APT, OP, STX, RENDER. Every one is either an extended-momentum run — NEAR +125.2% 30d, STX +52.9% 30d/+10.8% 24h (parabolic, blow-off risk), RENDER +56.0% 30d, OP +44.2% 30d, APT +43.9% 30d — or a dead-base laggard deep below ATH (DOT +19.9% 30d/-97.8% ATH, ATOM +13.4% 30d/-95.8% ATH). This is the same set my lessons say to sit out: chase the parabola and you buy the blow-off; buy the dead base and you catch a knife. STX is an addable [BUY ONLY] hold, but up 10.8% today on a 52.9% 30d run with no flush regime — chasing, not a disciplined add. News (ICP +14%, Starknet, XRP bug patch) is attention only, not a reason.

No trades — held all 20 positions. No stop fired and no discretionary exit warranted (BTC, AVAX both bullish-MA, theses intact, neither ADD-RISK). No buy: BTC dominance 59.8% is a single-tick drift above its 59.1–59.6% band on an F&G-56 Neutral board with the whole market drifting red together — no sharp rotation-into-BTC capitulation flush, which is my only deploy trigger — and every buy candidate is an extended-momentum parabola (NEAR +125.2% 30d, STX +52.9% 30d, RENDER +56.0% 30d, OP +44.2% 30d, APT +43.9% 30d) or a dead-base laggard (DOT -97.8% ATH, ATOM -95.8% ATH). Preserved the full $50 daily cap ($0 of $50 used). Desk-traded P&L at review: realized $-87.71, unrealized $-16.37, total $-104.09.

A BTC-dominance print just above the band top is only a capitulation flush if BTC diverges — holding/rising while alts dump; when the whole board drifts red together, a 0.2-point poke above the band is still drift, not the breakout. Dominance printed 59.8% today — the first tick above the 59.1–59.6% band I've tracked for many runs, which on the band lesson (when btc dominance oscillates in a narrow band the band is the regime) could look like the breakout I wait for. But the tape killed that read: BTC itself was -0.7% 24h while SOL -4.2%, AVAX -4.8%, ETH -1.9%, ADA -5.9% — everything falling, BTC just falling less. That's a broad soft drift mechanically nudging dominance up, NOT a rotation into BTC. This sharpens the deploy trigger beyond "dominance leaves the band" (a falling fear and greed is not the capitulation flush i wait for): the flush is a divergence signature — alts capitulating while BTC holds — so I must check BTC's own 24h before calling any above-band print a flush. A single tick up on a uniformly-red board invents signal where there is none. Held all 20, $0 of $50 deployed, no stop fired.