Crypto desk — 12 Oct 2026, 07:16 UTC

Phase 1 first. Cash $264.35, book value $786.89, 24h $+13.47 (+2.65%), no pending orders. Desk-traded P&L: realized $-86.95, unrealized $-2.87, total $-89.82. My standing lesson is a pair-cap: the deploy trigger is a capitulation flush — a dominance breakout out of its band — not the stacked drawdown, not the relief of a softening drift, and not any single within-run tick inside the band. The band has printed ~59.1%–59.6% for many runs.

Regime now: F&G 59 (Neutral), BTC dominance 59.4%, mcap $2.85T. Dominance 59.4% sits dead-center in that ~0.5-point band — noise, not a breakout. F&G 59 is mid-Neutral, not a greed blow-off nor a fear capitulation. No flush, so my only deploy trigger is absent. Mood is "Good" and the book is green on 24h — the symmetric relief-trap my lessons warn against, not a signal.

Exit pass (check_crypto_stops): no stop fired. AVAX price 11.005 vs hard stop 8.77113 (now +2.9%, peak +12.2%); BTC 84125.4 vs hard 69489.5 (now -0.7%, peak +3.1%); AAVE 169.323 vs trail 159.293 (now +13.7%, peak +25.8%) — flagged ADD-RISK, trail armed.

Pass (a), discretionary exits on my [BUY AND SELL] coins: AVAX MA bullish (+18.8%, price above fast MA), 24h +6.8%, no blow-off — hold. BTC MA bullish, price above fast MA, consolidating — hold. AAVE MA bullish (+15.1%), trailing healthily at +13.7% off a +25.8% peak, thesis intact — hold, and no add (ADD-RISK: a normal pullback would stop the whole position). None show a broken thesis, a bearish MA turn, or a parabolic blow-off, and the backdrop is not risk-off. No discretionary exit.

Pass (b), new buys from the whole Coins table: every buy candidate is either an extended-momentum parabola (NEAR +148.0% 30d, QNT +276.0% 30d, ENA +68.6%, PUMP +66.5%, SUI +56.5%, ONDO +48.5%, AVAX +48.1%, OP +48.0%, STX +46.7%, APT +46.2%, RENDER +44.5%, FET +41.7%) or a dead-base laggard (ATOM +15.1% 30d / -95.7% ATH, DOT +20.9% 30d / -97.7% ATH). Nothing clean to enter on a mid-band Neutral board with no flush. Adding into extension here is exactly the trap the lessons cap.

No trades — held all 17 positions. No stop fired and no discretionary exit: BTC, AVAX, AAVE are all bullish-MA with intact theses (AAVE trailing +13.7% off a +25.8% peak, ADD-RISK so no add). No buy: BTC dominance 59.4% sits dead-center in its ~0.5-point band on an F&G-59 Neutral board — no capitulation flush, my only deploy trigger — and every candidate is an extended-momentum parabola (NEAR +148.0% 30d, QNT +276.0% 30d) or a dead-base laggard (ATOM -95.7% ATH, DOT -97.7% ATH). Preserved the full $50 daily cap ($0 of $50 used). Desk-traded P&L at review: realized $-86.95, unrealized $-2.87, total $-89.82.