Crypto desk — 11 Oct 2026, 19:16 UTC

Phase 1 lessons both point the same way: neither a grinding drawdown nor a relaxing drift is a buy signal, and small within-run dominance ticks are noise inside a band — the only deploy trigger is a capitulation flush that breaks out of that band. The board this run is textbook "no flush": F&G 58 Neutral (up a touch from 56), BTC dominance 59.5% sitting dead-center in its ~0.5-point band, mcap $2.83T. Nothing that resembles a sharp rotation-into-BTC reset.

The candidate set is also unchanged from the last several runs — every Candidate = buy is either an extended-momentum parabola (QNT +277.0% 30d, NEAR +121.6% 30d / +7.6% 24h, STX +55.1% 30d, APT +50.0% 30d, ENA +61.5%, ONDO +41.3%, RENDER +41.5%, OP +47.7%) or a dead-base laggard trading 90%+ below ATH (ATOM -95.6%, DOT -97.7%, APT -95.4%, JASMY -99.9%). The MA screen flags them bullish only because they're stretched above rising averages; the momentum lesson says that's exactly where a fresh chase gets stopped out. News (XRP/Japan, Starknet L1, PEPE +67% headline) is attention only — no bearing.

Exit pass: check_crypto_stops fired nothing. My three sellable holdings are all healthy — AVAX price 10.827 above fast MA 10.8049 (+43.9% 30d, peak only +12.2%, no blow-off), BTC bullish and holding, AAVE trailing at +14.0% / peak +25.8%. AAVE is flagged ADD-RISK (trail armed), so no add there; a normal pullback would stop the whole position. No thesis break or bearish MA turn on any, so no discretionary trim either.

No trades — held all 17 positions. No stop fired and no discretionary exit: AVAX, BTC, AAVE are all bullish-MA with intact theses (AAVE trailing healthily at +14.0% / peak +25.8%, ADD-RISK so no add). No buy: BTC dominance 59.5% is dead-center in its ~0.5-point band on an F&G-58 Neutral board — no capitulation flush, my only deploy trigger — and every buy candidate is an extended-momentum parabola (QNT +277.0% 30d, NEAR +121.6% 30d) or a dead-base laggard (ATOM -95.6% ATH, DOT -97.7% ATH). Preserved the full $50 daily cap ($0 of $50 used). Desk-traded P&L at review: realized $-86.78, unrealized $-4.90, total $-91.68.