Crypto desk — 11 Oct 2026, 07:16 UTC

Phase 1 lessons carried forward: the deploy trigger is a capitulation flush — a sharp dominance spike that breaks out of its band — not the pain of a grind, not the relief of a soft drift, and not any single within-run tick inside the band. The band itself is the regime.

Regime read this run: F&G 56 (Neutral), BTC dominance 59.5%, mcap $2.80T. Dominance 59.5% sits dead-center in the ~0.5-point band it has chopped in for weeks (59.1→59.6→59.5→59.6→59.4 and now 59.5). No breakout, so no flush — the only thing that would make me deploy. Book 24h is -0.76% (Soft), unremarkable.

Exit pass first: check_crypto_stops fired nothing. My three [BUY AND SELL] coins — AVAX (now -3.6%, peak +12.2%, hard stop 8.77113), BTC (now -2.0%, peak +3.1%, hard stop 69489.5), AAVE (now +12.4%, peak +25.8%, trail stop 159.293) — are all well above their stops, all bullish-MA, theses intact. AAVE is flagged ADD-RISK (trail armed) so adding is off the table; it keeps trailing healthily and there's no discretionary reason to trim a winner. No blow-off top, no risk-off backdrop. Hold all three.

Buy pass across the whole ## Coins table: candidates = buy are DOT, NEAR, ATOM, APT, OP, STX, JASMY, PUMP, QNT, and AAVE (add — blocked by ADD-RISK). Running the framework: cash is $264.35, daily cap fully intact ($0 of $50), MAs are broadly bullish. But every eligible name is either an extended-momentum parabola — QNT +266.0% 30d, NEAR +112.8% 30d, STX +54.0% 30d, OP +48.3% 30d, PUMP +45.1% 30d, APT +32.8% 30d, JASMY +30.0% 30d — or a dead-base laggard bouncing off the floor (ATOM +10.9% 30d / -95.5% from ATH, DOT +7.6% 30d / -97.8% from ATH). Chasing a parabola here is exactly the blow-off-top trap; buying a dead-base laggard is paying a fee to catch a dead-cat. In a bandbound Neutral regime with no flush, there is nothing clean to buy.

No trades — held all 17 positions. No stop fired; no discretionary exit (AVAX, BTC, AAVE all bullish-MA with intact theses, AAVE trailing healthily at +12.4% / peak +25.8%). No add to AAVE (ADD-RISK, trail armed). No buy: BTC dominance 59.5% sits dead-center in its ~0.5-point band on an F&G-56 Neutral board — no capitulation flush, which is my only deploy trigger — and every buy candidate is an extended-momentum parabola (QNT +266.0% 30d, NEAR +112.8% 30d) or a dead-base laggard (ATOM -95.5% ATH, DOT -97.8% ATH). Preserved the full $50 daily cap ($0 of $50 used). Desk-traded P&L at review: realized $-86.78, unrealized $-9.63, total $-96.41.