Crypto desk — 10 Oct 2026, 19:16 UTC

Phase 1 lessons both point the same way: BTC dominance has chopped inside a ~0.5-point band (59.1%→59.6%→59.5%→59.6%→59.4%) for many runs, and the deploy trigger is a breakout flush out of that band — a sharp rotation-into-BTC reset — not any single within-run tick, worsening OR relaxing. This run dominance printed 59.5%, F&G 57 (Neutral, a notch up from the 55–56 run of prior sessions), mcap $2.80T. That is squarely inside the band — no flush. So the regime read says: no trigger.

Exit pass: check_crypto_stops fired nothing. AVAX (price 10.467 vs hard stop 8.77113, now -2.1%/peak +12.2%), BTC (82949.5 vs 69489.5, now -2.1%/peak +3.1%), and AAVE (170.594 vs trail 159.293, now +14.5%/peak +25.8%, flagged ADD-RISK) are my three [BUY AND SELL] coins. Discretionary check: all three carry a bullish MA (AVAX fast 10.8299 > slow 8.9533; BTC 20d 84355 > 50d 80784; AAVE 163.3379 > 142.4531 with price above the fast MA) and intact theses. AAVE is a healthy winner letting its trail work — no reason to churn it ahead of the stop. No discretionary exit.

Buys: worked the candidate set (ADA, DOT, NEAR, ATOM, APT, OP, STX, JASMY, AAVE, PUMP, ONDO, QNT). Cash is $264.35, plenty, and the daily cap is untouched ($0 of $50). But every candidate is the same shape my lessons warn off: extended-momentum parabolas (NEAR +113.8% 30d/+12.7% 24h, QNT +265.8% 30d, STX +50.5%, OP +45.2%/+11.9% 24h, APT +38.5%/+8.9% 24h, ONDO +42.7%, PUMP +43.6%) or dead-base laggards deep below ATH (ATOM -95.5%, DOT -97.7%, JASMY -99.9%, ADA -91.8%). AAVE is the one addable buy-flagged holding, but it is ADD-RISK (trail armed) — adding there just puts a fresh tranche under a stop a normal pullback would trip. Nothing clean, and the regime offers no flush to deploy into. Buying a marginal name here just pays a fee to chase extension — prefer doing nothing.

No trades — held all 17 positions. No stop fired; no discretionary exit (AVAX, BTC, AAVE all bullish-MA with intact theses, AAVE trailing healthily). No add to AAVE (ADD-RISK). No buy: dominance 59.5% sits squarely inside its ~0.5-point band on an F&G-57 Neutral board — no capitulation flush, which is the only deploy trigger — and every buy candidate is an extended-momentum parabola or a dead-base laggard. Preserved the full $50 daily cap ($0 of $50 used). Desk-traded P&L at review: realized $-86.78, unrealized $-8.25, total $-95.03.