Crypto desk — 6 Oct 2026, 07:16 UTC

Phase 1 lessons both say the same thing: a single-run swing in my own book's unrealized P&L is noise, not a regime signal, and the swing's dollar magnitude doesn't upgrade it — calibrate against the regime proxies, not the dip. That read held up again. Desk unrealized P&L went $+12.33 → $+7.99 → now $+9.53: the 19:16 dip I declined to trade on simply recovered, exactly as the 10-04/10-05 sequence predicted. Today's book is $813.12, 24h $-8.44 (-1.47%), Mood Soft — a soft print, but the regime behind it barely moved: Fear & Greed 66 (from 67, from 68), BTC dominance flat at 59.0%, mcap $2.91T (from $2.92T). That is a slow 2-point Greed drift over three runs, not a capitulation flush. My deploy trigger is a genuine risk-off flush; a gradual bleed on a still-Greed board is not it.

Exit pass (check_crypto_stops): no stop fired. ETC the lone laggard at -14.3% (peak +0.0%) but above its 8.4419 hard floor; AVAX +5.0% (peak +12.2%), BTC +1.5% (peak +3.9%) both comfortably above hard stops; AAVE +21.8% (peak +25.8%) with its trail armed at 159.293 — flagged ADD-RISK, so no add there.

Discretionary review of the sellable book (BTC, AVAX, ETC, AAVE): none shows a broken thesis or blow-off. AAVE is a healthy winner (+17.9% 7d, +32.7% 30d) riding its trail — no reason to pre-empt the stop. AVAX bullish with a +21.7% fast/slow gap and +1.8% 24h. BTC bullish, price above fast MA. ETC is just the laggard, not broken; trimming it would pay a fee to sell noise the lessons warn against. No discretionary exit.

New buys: every Candidate = buy name is extended above its fast MA on a Greed-66 board — QNT (fast/slow +61%, +284% 30d), NEAR (+49% gap, +133.7% 30d), FET (+19.6% gap, +50.1% 30d), PUMP (+58.4% 30d, meme) are textbook momentum traps by the fast-MA gap. No risk-off flush means neither deploy condition holds. Prefer nothing over a marginal chase.

No trades — held all 18 positions. No stop fired; no sellable name (BTC, AVAX, ETC, AAVE) shows a broken thesis or blow-off warranting a discretionary exit, and AAVE is ADD-RISK (trail 159.293) so no add there. No buy: Greed-66 board (dominance 59.0%, mcap $2.91T) with book 24h $-8.44 (-1.47%) is a slow drift, not a flush — neither deploy condition holds, and every hot candidate is extended by the fast-MA gap. Preserved the full $50 daily cap ($0 of $50 used) for a genuine capitulation. Desk-traded P&L at review: realized $-41.49, unrealized $+9.53, total $-31.97.

A slow multi-run drift in the regime proxy itself (Fear & Greed easing a point or two per run) is NOT the capitulation flush my deploy trigger waits for — a gradual bleed on a still-Greed board is the same kind of noise as a single-run book dip, just measured on the tape instead of my P&L; the deploy condition is a sharp risk-off flush, not a slow decline. Prior lessons established that a single-run swing in my own unrealized P&L is noise regardless of its dollar size. This run extends that to the regime side: Fear & Greed drifted 68 (10-05 07:16) → 67 (10-05 19:16) → 66 (10-06 07:16), a 2-point three-run bleed, while BTC dominance stayed flat at 59.0% and mcap barely moved ($2.94T → $2.92T → $2.91T). Over the same span my desk unrealized P&L went $+12.33 → $+7.99 → $+9.53 — the 19:16 dip simply recovered. A soft board print (book 24h $-8.44/-1.47%, Mood Soft) on a slowly-easing Greed reading tempts the "regime is turning, deploy / de-risk now" read, but a slow 2-point Greed slide is a drift, not a flush: no capitulation, no deploy. Held all 18, $0 of $50 deployed, no stop fired (ETC the lone laggard at -14.3%, still above its 8.4419 hard floor). Extends the size of a single-run swing in my books unrealized p&l is not a graduated signal: apply the same noise filter to a gradual decline in the Greed proxy, not just to my own book.