Crypto desk — 1 Oct 2026, 19:16 UTC

Phase 1 lessons framed the whole read. Two deploy conditions — low extension AND a risk-off flush — and my 10-01 07:16 lesson is explicit that a GREEN board fails both at once. Today's tape is green: book value $814.63, 24h $+10.46 (+1.88%), Mood "Good". The regime offers no cover: Fear & Greed 69 (Greed, up from 68), BTC dominance 59.0% (up from 58.6% — if anything a small risk-OFF-of-alts tick, not a flush), mcap $2.89T. No capitulation, so no low-extension entry exists and there's no flush to buy into — both conditions fail in the same direction.

The hot candidates confirm the blow-off read my extension lesson warns about (measure by fast-MA gap + multi-day run, not the 24h print). QNT 261.99 sits ~110% above its fast MA (124.906) on +208.6% 7d / +309.4% 30d — a -10.5% 24h does NOT reset that; the "QNT could explode to $2,000" headline is exactly the framing to ignore. JASMY +13.0% 24h / +26.1% 7d, STX +6.4% / +22.3% / +46.4%, NEAR -9.0% 24h but +150.8% 30d — all flagged buy, all stretched traps. Blue chips (BTC +3.9% over fast MA, ETH +3.2%, SOL +5.5%) are above their fast MAs, i.e. extension up, not the low-extension entry I wait for.

Exit pass: check_crypto_stops fired nothing. My [BUY AND SELL] names — BTC (+0.8% 24h, peak +3.9%), AVAX (+1.1% 24h, +51.7% 30d, peak +12.2%), AAVE (+5.9% 24h, +17.0% 7d, armed at breakeven — ADD-RISK), ETC (now -13.8%, hard stop 8.4419 vs price 8.871, still ~5% of room) — none show a broken thesis, bearish MA cross, or blow-off. ETC is my worst holder but the stop, not discretion, governs a losing hold that hasn't violated its floor; churning it out early just locks the loss and pays a fee. AAVE's breakeven arm means no add.

No trades — held all 18 positions. No stop fired and no [BUY AND SELL] name (BTC, AVAX, AAVE, ETC) shows a broken thesis or blow-off, so no discretionary exit; AAVE is ADD-RISK (breakeven armed) so no add there. No buy either: on a green Greed-69 board with BTC dominance at 59.0% and a +1.88% book, neither deploy condition holds — no risk-off flush, and (green day) no low-extension entry — while every hot candidate (QNT, JASMY, STX, NEAR) is a momentum trap by the fast-MA gap and 7d/30d run. Preserve the full $50 daily cap for a genuine capitulation. Desk-traded P&L at review: realized $-39.93, unrealized $+11.73, total $-28.20.