Crypto desk — 14 Sep 2026, 07:20 UTC

Phase 1 carried two paired lessons forward: hold the powder while the regime readings drift down together, and re-engage one tranche as soon as those same readings turn back up together — the reversal itself being the tell, no separate firming signal required, with size kept small (dry powder retained) until BTC dominance also eases into a full firming.

The 19:16 run already executed the re-engage: with F&G firming 66→68, mcap recovering to $2.64T and dominance flat 58.8%, it deployed one $5 tranche into ETH and left ~$10 dry.

This run the tape is steady-firm, not a fresh turn-up: F&G 68 (unchanged from 19:16), mcap $2.65T (a marginal tick up from $2.64T), BTC dominance flat at 58.8%. That is the same constructive Greed structure I already acted on last run — there is no new upward increment to trigger another re-engage, and dominance still has not eased (no falling-dominance risk-on-for-alts tell). My lesson gates a further deploy on that easing, not on the tape merely staying firm. With cash already drawn to $10.00 by last run's tranche, another $5 add into an unchanged tape is exactly the marginal, same-tape trade the "keep dry powder until dominance eases" clause tells me to skip.

Exits: check_crypto_stops fired nothing — ETH, BTC, BNB, AAVE, TON, ADA all on hard floors, none armed, none ADD-RISK. Discretionary pass on the [BUY AND SELL] holdings found no thesis break: ETH/BNB/ADA are above their fast MAs and bullish; BTC and AAVE sit just under their fast MAs on shallow pullbacks (BTC -1.5%, AAVE -3.7% from entry) with bullish MA structure intact. TON remains the lone watch item — MA still bearish (-0.5%, table flags sell), now -2.1% with a +5.1% peak — but it is a $5.38 position on persistent shallow chop, not a fresh break, and its hard stop hasn't armed. Paying an in-kind fee to whipsaw out of a tiny hold is not warranted; held, consistent with prior runs.

Placed no orders. Held the entire book. Keeping $10.00 dry.

• No stop exits — check_crypto_stops fired nothing; all six [BUY AND SELL] coins on hard floors, none armed, none ADD-RISK.
• No discretionary exit/trim — no thesis break across ETH/BTC/BNB/AAVE/ADA. TON held as the standing watch item (bearish MA, -2.1% now on a $5.38 position — shallow chop, not a break worth a fee).
• No new buys — the regime is steady-firm (F&G 68 unchanged, mcap $2.64T→$2.65T, dominance flat 58.8%), the same tape I already re-engaged into at 19:16. No fresh turn-up and dominance still not easing, so I preserve the last $10.00 of dry powder rather than force a marginal same-tape add.

Cash stays $10.00. Daily spend today $0.00 of the $50 cap across 0 buys. Desk-traded P&L (real fills) at review: realized $-0.53, unrealized $-3.22, total $-3.75.

The re-engage tell is a fresh turn-up, not a steady-firm level — once you've already deployed on the readings turning back up together, a tape that merely holds firm the next run is NOT a new trigger, so don't re-deploy into it; deploying every run the tape stays firm just drains the powder without a new tell. My 09-13 19:16 lesson (the reversal of a softening drift is the re-engage signal) deployed one $5 ETH tranche on the turn-up (F&G 66→68, mcap $2.62T→$2.64T, dominance flat 58.8%), leaving ~$10 dry. This run the readings were steady-firm, not freshly rising: F&G 68 (unchanged), mcap only $2.64T→$2.65T, dominance still flat 58.8% — the same constructive Greed structure I'd already acted on, with no new upward increment and dominance still not easing (no falling-dominance risk-on-for-alts tell, per falling dominance is the risk-on-for-alts tell). Reading the re-engage lesson loosely ("firm Greed + quality above fast MA = deploy") would have forced a second marginal $5 add into an unchanged tape, drawing cash to $5. Resolution: gate the re-engage on the change in the readings (a fresh joint turn-up), not on the firm level persisting — mirror of a softening regime is weaker than a flat level so hold (level ≠ direction) applied to the upside. Generalized principle: after you've deployed on a turn-up, hold the remaining powder until either the readings turn up again by a further increment, or dominance eases into a full firming — a tape that just stays firm earns no new tranche.