Crypto desk — 13 Sep 2026, 09:32 UTC

Phase 1 gave me $15.00 cash, book value $428.47 (24h $-7.68/-1.84%, Mood Soft), no pending orders, and desk-traded P&L realized $-0.53 / unrealized $-7.54 / total $-8.07. Caps: $5/buy, $50/day (all $50 still free), ≤3 new buys/run. My six sellable [BUY AND SELL] coins are ETH, BTC, BNB, AAVE, TON, ADA.

check_crypto_stops fired nothing — every sellable coin sits on its hard floor (ETH stop 2054.48, BTC 64686.9, BNB 570.396, AAVE 107.634, TON 1.13626, ADA 0.18313), none armed to breakeven/trail, none ADD-RISK. Peaks are modest (BNB +12.1% the best), so nothing is close to arming.

Discretionary exit pass: no thesis break. TON is the only bearish sellable name (MA -0.4%, 1.3832 < 1.3887; research flags it sell) and has been my watch item two runs running — but it's still shallow chop, now -2.8% on a $5.36 position with the hard floor far below at 1.13626. My prior discipline held that selling a -0.4%-bearish TON pays a fee to whipsaw a small position; nothing has changed that. ADA looks worst on the day at -8.9% but its MA is still bullish (0.208687 > 0.196083) — no break. Hold the whole book.

New-buy pass — the regime read is the crux. Buy candidates in the Coins table are ETH, DOT, LTC, TRX, NEAR, ATOM, ARB, STX, UNI, FET, ICP, OCEAN, DASH. My 2026-09-12 19:15 lesson says a flat tape still earns one disciplined tranche rather than leaving meaningful idle cash idle in a Greed structure. But today's tape isn't flat — it's softening: Fear & Greed has drifted 68 → 67 → 66 across the last runs, total mcap slipped $2.64T → $2.62T, BTC dominance ticked 58.7% → 58.8% (flat-to-up, the inverse of the risk-on-for-alts tell), and breadth is broadly red (book -1.84%, Mood Soft, only a handful of coins green on 24h). A multi-reading downward drift is a weaker case than the flat level the 19:15 lesson governs. The names with genuine relative strength (DOT +6.6% 7d but -3.8% today, TRX +1.8% 7d/+0.1% today, OCEAN +4.6% 7d) are tempting, but with dominance flat-to-up and F&G/mcap both drifting down there's no clean firming tell to green-light adding alt risk. I already put one $5 ETH tranche to work yesterday and cash is down to $15. Prefer doing nothing over a marginal trade into a softening tape.

Placed no orders. Held the entire book. Keeping $15.00 dry.

• No stop exits — check_crypto_stops fired nothing; all six [BUY AND SELL] coins on hard floors, none armed, none ADD-RISK.
• No discretionary exit/trim — no thesis break. TON stays the watch item (MA -0.4%, -2.8% now) but that's shallow chop on a $5.36 position, not a break worth a whipsaw fee. ADA (-8.9% now) still has a bullish MA. Held.
• No new buys — the tape has softened since my last deploy (F&G 66 down from 67, mcap $2.62T down from $2.64T, dominance flat-to-up 58.8%, breadth broadly red). No firming tell, so I preserve the $15 dry powder for a genuine risk-on turn rather than force a marginal tranche into a softening alt tape.

Cash stays $15.00. Daily spend today $0.00 of the $50 cap across 0 buys. Desk-traded P&L (real fills) at review: realized $-0.53, unrealized $-7.54, total $-8.07.

A softening regime (multiple readings drifting down together) is a weaker case than a flat level, and does NOT earn the "deploy one tranche" treatment — with meaningful idle cash but no firming tell, hold the dry powder. My 2026-09-12 19:15 lesson (a flat tape argues against a full deploy not any deploy) put one $5 tranche to work into a genuinely flat tape (F&G 68→67, dominance flat, mcap flat), reasoning that leaving idle cash unproductive in Greed is its own drag. Today I had $15 idle in the same Greed structure but the tape wasn't flat — F&G had drifted 68→67→66, mcap $2.64T→$2.62T, BTC dominance ticked 58.7%→58.8% (flat-to-up, inverse of falling dominance is the risk-on-for-alts tell), and breadth was broadly red (Mood Soft, book -1.84%). Reading the 19:15 lesson literally ("Greed + quality above fast MA = deploy small") would have forced a tranche into a tape that is actively weakening. Resolution: distinguish level from direction. A flat level (readings steady) → one disciplined tranche is fine. A downward drift across several readings at once → sit, preserve the powder, and wait for the drift to stop or reverse (F&G turning back up + dominance easing). Generalized principle: gate the deploy on the direction of the regime readings, not just their level — softening ≠ flat, and softening means hold.