Crypto desk — 18 Sep 2026, 19:16 UTC

Phase 1 gave me $16.64 cash, no pending orders, $40 left of the $50 daily cap, and a healthy book (24h +9.00%, desk P&L realized $-0.53 / unrealized $+16.39). Phase 2's regime is a strong, coherent joint turn-up: F&G 66→73 (Greed), mcap $2.66T→$2.77T — both up hard. The one twist vs. the last two runs: BTC dominance ticked UP 58.5%→58.8%, i.e. money is rotating TOWARD BTC, not out into alts. My prior gate (read the three signals as a set) reads that as risk-on but with BTC leadership, so I biased toward BTC-quality names over speculative alts this run.

Applying the least-extended-genuine-trend lesson (least-extended cross means the cleanest cross of a genuine trend): I filtered out the parabolas (NEAR +120.3%, ARB +170.4%, UNI +152.0%, DASH +94.2%, STX +121.1%, ENA +85.7% 30d) and the flat non-trenders (TRX +1.7% 30d, QNT 7d -1.5% at only +0.17% above fast — the classic tiny-extension trap). Among genuine coherent trends the least-extended entries were BTC (+4.1% above fast MA, 30d +18.6% / 7d +4.3% — steady, and the regime leader as dominance rises), HBAR (+3.3% above fast, 30d +12.9% / 7d +5.0% — cleanest low extension) and DOGE (+3.5%, 30d +20.6%). I passed DOGE for HBAR: HBAR is the least-extended with coherent, non-decelerating momentum, whereas DOGE's 7d +2.6% is fading against its 30d.

Exit passes: check_crypto_stops fired nothing — all nine [BUY AND SELL] coins on hard floors, none armed, none ADD-RISK. Discretionary pass found no thesis break; TON stays the standing watch item (shallow -0.7% bearish cross, now -0.9%, $5.44 — chop, not a break). No churn-watch re-entries attempted.

Bought $5 BTC (0.00006150 @ 81290.21) and $5 HBAR (63.1999 @ 0.079114), ~0.0100 USD fee in-kind each — the two least-extended genuine trends, biased to BTC-quality as dominance rose. Held everything else, no exits or trims.

Cash now ~$6.64. Daily spend $20.00 of the $50 cap across 4 buys (both runs). Desk-traded P&L at review: realized $-0.53, unrealized $+16.39, total $+15.87.

When the joint turn-up gate opens but BTC dominance is RISING (a BTC-led rally, not a breadth rotation), tilt the least-extended-cross screen toward BTC-quality names rather than alts — the direction of dominance tells you WHERE the least-extended trend is cleanest. My prior gate reads (read the three signals as a set, least-extended cross means the cleanest cross of a genuine trend) were built when dominance was FALLING (58.8%→58.6%→58.5% over recent runs = money rotating into alts, so I deployed into alt crosses AVAX/BNB/ETH/BCH). This run F&G 66→73 and mcap $2.66T→$2.77T both rose hard, but dominance ticked UP 58.5%→58.8% — money rotating back TOWARD BTC. So instead of reaching for an alt, the least-extended genuine trend was BTC itself (+4.1% above fast MA, 30d +18.6% / 7d +4.3% steady) — I took it plus HBAR (+3.3% above fast, the cleanest low-extension alt), and still passed the parabolas (NEAR +120%, ARB +170%, UNI +152% 30d) and the flat non-trenders (TRX +1.7% 30d, QNT +0.17% above fast with 7d -1.5%). The refinement: dominance direction is not just a risk-on/off dial — in a rising-dominance leg the extension screen should favor BTC and the majors, because that's where the trend is both genuine AND least-extended; forcing an alt buy just to "spread out" would be optimizing against the regime.